Tuesday, 3 May 2011

One Man One Vote - Why Change That?

One man one vote - why change that simple, democratic principle for a more complex system?

Both AV and FPTP give the voters a one man one vote system. However, the AV system allows a vote to be transferred. It's still one vote, no matter how many times it gets transferred.

The question is then, is it fair to allow a vote to be transferred?

The only situation where transfers arise are when the vote leader has less than 50% support. In this case votes of the knocked-out losers are transferred to their other preferences, with the end result that the winner has 50% or more of the votes. If a less popular candidate loses the initial lead because of this process, that has to be fair, because the majority's diverse wishes will be carried instead of the single-minded wishes of a minority.

The only situation where transfers arise are when the vote leader has less than 50% support but this happens in two-thirds of seats at the moment so it will have a big impact on future elections.

Monday, 2 May 2011

Should I vote Yes or No?

  • Vote Yes if you want a change
  • Vote No if you want to keep the same system
  • Vote Yes if you want MPs to have 50% of the vote
  • Vote No if you don't mind MPs being able to get in with less than 50% of the vote
  • Vote Yes if you want the Liberal Democrats to have more chance at government
  • Vote No if you want the BNP to have more chance of a seat in government
  • Vote Yes if you want to prevent extremist parties getting seats in government
  • Vote No of you want to give extremists a chance to get a seat in government

Is AV more complicated?

Yes, AV is more complicated. It's more sophisticated. However, it is just as open and honest as the current FPTP system. Counting is done by the same people that count FPTP results. The method of counting is more complex but it's not hard to understand once you open your mind to it and understand the mechanism.

FPTP stops after the count of all votes. The winner was the one who had the most votes at that stage. It does not consider any second or third preferences at all.

AV counting only stops once the winner has achieved a 50% share of the vote. It means 50% of the people either chose that candidate as their first choice or as a second, third or fourth choice and so on. But, be sure of this, they did choose that candidate.

AV produces winners who have overwhelming support.

We have to be careful here to point out a few things:
  • not everyone votes - some people who can vote will not turn up to vote
  • when candidates are knocked out of the voting, all votes for them that have no further preferences will be discarded
Bearing this in mind you might say that it means that the winner who has 50% of the votes does not necessarily have 50% of the votes of all voters. However, if people do not vote and do not express second and third preferences, it means they are undecided and are content for others to decide the outcome, so in fact, it is a kind of vote.

If I don't go to the election, my intention is "I do not want to make a decision on who will be my MP and I will be satisfied with whoever is selected by other voters".

AV is more complicated, but complication does not mean unfairness.

Is there a fairer system than AV and FPTP?

Yes there are other systems that we could adopt that would make things numerically fairer.

A proportional representation (PR) system would enable parliament to be made up of the precise number of seats per party based on the voting of the nation. Is that a good thing?

The problem with PR is that it takes away the all-important constituency link. It also leaves the decision of the people chosen to represent us is made by the parties. No longer will we have a say in who is elected to be our MP.

The vote on Thursday does not allow us to choose the PR option but the outcome on Thursday could lead to more changes being discussed in the future or could lead to the whole change process being stopped for good.

Is there any point in changing to AV?

Yes it could be worth doing because it will make our voting system more democratic.

The existing FPTP system is ideal for two-party politics. Such as the Republicans and Democrats in USA. But here in the UK we have a lot more diverse parties, all with important agendas that represent a range of views. Under FPTP the two main parties: Conservative and Labour, take turns at government, leaving the other parties with little impact at all.

The only reason not to change is if we want to keep the two party system. Voting no on Thursday will be a vote of confidence in Labour and Conservatives to continue to lead us. Each will take its turn in government, reversing the policies of the previous government. Parliament after parliament will be dominated by the wishes of the supporters of those two parties. Is that such a bad thing? Why fix the system if it is not broken?

Well, there are some flaws with the current system that could indicate it is already broken:
  • MPs Expenses Scandal
  • Safe Seats
  • Low Voter Turnout
  • The election is decided by about 500 thousand people in a a small number of marginal seats
  • Extremist Parties win seats with a fraction of support
Changing to AV will make voting fairer, but do we really want it to be fairer?

Is it Dangerous to Change to AV?

My concerns were that a change to our voting system could lead to dangers such as extremist parties getting control or just ending up with chaotic and weak government. I also heard a lot of issues being raised by the opponents of AV. Here are some of those concerns answered:

Will it cost £250 million to run the new system

Well before we ask if that is true, lets consider that amount of money. It's really such a small amount of money when considered at a national level. Are we really going to dismiss ideas of democratic change just because it costs £5 per person? Is democracy not worth £5. I thought this was a non-issue from the start. I agree we should be careful about costs but nothing can be accomplished if we let the cost stop us in our tracks.

Having looked into the claim, it seems entirely incorrect anyway. The only increase in costs that I can see will be extra time it might take to count the votes. The Treasury already budgeted for the costs of the election and regardless of the outcome of the referendum, the cost of the next general election will be the same, something like £120 million.

This is an unfair mud-slinging argument and is out of line with the sensible politics that we ned to move towards in the future.

Will people who vote for extremist and fringe parties get more votes, or is their vote counted more than those who vote for the winning party?

This is a valid concern. Yes, under the AV system, people votes may be counted more than once! However, it does not mean it is unfair. In the end, each voter only has one vote. The same One Man One Vote system that we get from FPTP.

It's like this: if you had £1 to spend and you wanted to spend it on Cadburys chocolate, but there is no Cadburys chocolate left in the store, and you spent it on a Mars Bar instead, you still only spent £1.

The votes may be counted more because the AV system is more sophisticated than FPTP.

It's true that those who vote for the winning party will only have their vote counted once, but it's also true that those who vote for losing parties could have their vote counted multiple times, but in each case, there is only one vote per person.

It's about preferences. If I vote for the Environment Party as my first choice and the Steady Party as my second choice, I am saying this "I would like the Environment Party to win but if they are knocked out then I would be content with the Steady Party".

Is it true that the counting is not straightforward

Yes this is true when compared to the very simple way in which FPTP is counted. But do we want to reject a voting system just because it is more complicated to understand? Do we stay with bicycles because cars are more complicated? No, improvements can be more complicated. The challenge is for us to understand the more complicated system and then make a judgement based on a full understanding.

Will it lead to more hung parliaments and coalition governments?

No. This is not the reason that we are headed towards more hung parliaments, weaker governments and coalition governments. This trend is already happening under FPTP. It has happened since the 1950s, as we have moved from having just two or three main parties to having a larger number of parties to select from.

Yes we can expect more hung parliaments and coalition government because this is inevitable in multi-party politics.

It is no longer a two-party contest, as shown by the clear outcome of the 2010 general election in which no party secured a majority of seats. In the future we are more likely to get coalition government but that is what we want. Sure, everyone would prefer their chosen party to win but if the majority don't agree with us then we must compromise.

Will coalitions be able to implement their election promises?

If we all accept that coalition is inevitable and parties are open and honest about their intentions, then we should accept that coalition governments will make compromises. Is that such a bad thing? Look at what the current government has already achieved: a referendum on the voting system, avoidance of another war and occupation situation in Libya.

Will it lead to back room deals and dangerous compromises?

It will be about back room deals for sure. But so what? Cabinet is a back room - a private meeting - we trust the ministers to represent us fairly. It's the same with coalition negotiations and deals, we trust our chosen representatives to be fair.

The danger seen in compromises is that the will of the people will be watered down and a weak government will be unable to make progress on the policies that we want. The current coalition government shows us this is not the case. The average UK citizen wanted to to get involved in Libya and prevent massacre. The UK led the way in achieving this, without committing our troops to the ground. It was an excellent compromise that included the wishes of the majority of the UK people.


What are the differences between AV and FPTP?

AV

AV gives each voter the right to choose more than one candidate who they would like to win, placing them in order of preference.

FPTP

FPTP gives the voter a choice of one and only one candidate.